Uncertainty in Forensic Science: Conceptualisation, Evaluation and Communication

This thesis addresses how uncertainty in forensic science can be conceptualised, evaluated, and communicated to lay stakeholders. Traditionally uncertainty has been articulated with vague definitions, while typologies of uncertainty have not been systematically and clearly established. The evaluation of uncertainty has largely been restricted within the confines of the Bayesian theorem and the methods and means of communicating uncertainty have yet to be agreed by the academic community and the criminal justice sector. The first study of the thesis reviews the current narrative within forensic science with regards to the conceptualisation of uncertainty, through an exploration of the definitions, typologies and characteristics recognised and used by academics, policymakers and the courts. An interdisciplinary configurative review was then conducted into three allied neighbouring disciplines of medicine, environmental science and economics, to identify innovative ways to conceptualise, evaluate and communicate uncertainty to lay stakeholders in forensic science. As a result, three toolkits were developed, one each for the three facets of addressing scientific uncertainty. A third study was then carried out, to establish the sources of uncertainty that key stakeholders identified to be priorities for evaluation and communication for the application of science to the justice system. This study thereby tested that the findings from the interdisciplinary systematic review reflected the experiences of stakeholders, and in so doing provided a foundation for optimising the value of the three toolkits. The wider implications of dealing with uncertainty in forensic science in a more consistent, coherent and standardised fashion are then considered with a focus on both the discipline itself, and for different stakeholders within the criminal justice system. There is a clear need to recognise uncertainty as a salient issue in every stage of the forensic science process, and particularly so in the presentation of forensic science evidence in court. The body of work presented here offers a starting point for the development of a more coherent and consistent understanding of scientific uncertainty in forensic science, while also encouraging fruitful conversations regarding ways through which it can be evaluated and communicated to lay stakeholders. This research identifies the key aspects of considering uncertainty as a fundamental and integrated part of forensic science by identifying the nuances, complexities and limitations of forensic science evidence in the context of the delivery and application of science in a multiple stakeholder justice system

High molecular weight polyproline as a potential biosourced ice growth inhibitor : synthesis, ice recrystallization inhibition, and specific ice face binding

Ice-binding proteins (IBPs) from extremophile organisms can modulate ice formation and growth. There are many (bio)technological applications of IBPs, from cryopreservation to mitigating freeze–thaw damage in concrete to frozen food texture modifiers. Extraction or expression of IBPs can be challenging to scale up, and hence polymeric biomimetics have emerged. It is, however, desirable to use biosourced monomers and heteroatom-containing backbones in polymers for in vivo or environmental applications to allow degradation. Here we investigate high molecular weight polyproline as an ice recrystallization inhibitor (IRI). Low molecular weight polyproline is known to be a weak IRI. Its activity is hypothesized to be due to the unique PPI helix it adopts, but it has not been thoroughly investigated. Here an open-to-air aqueous N-carboxyanhydride polymerization is employed to obtain polyproline with molecular weights of up to 50000 g mol–1. These polymers were found to have IRI activity down to 5 mg mL–1, unlike a control peptide of polysarcosine, which did not inhibit all ice growth at up to 40 mg mL–1. The polyprolines exhibited lower critical solution temperature behavior and assembly/aggregation observed at room temperature, which may contribute to its activity. Single ice crystal assays with polyproline led to faceting, consistent with specific ice-face binding. This work shows that non-vinyl-based polymers can be designed to inhibit ice recrystallization and may offer a more sustainable or environmentally acceptable, while synthetically scalable, route to large-scale applications

GAMA+KiDS:Alignment of galaxies in galaxy groups and its dependence on galaxy scale

Intrinsic galaxy alignments are a source of bias for weak lensing measurements as well as a tool for understanding galaxy formation and evolution. In this work, we measure the alignment of shapes of satellite galaxies, in galaxy groups, with respect to the brightest group galaxy (BGG), as well as alignments of the BGG shape with the satellite positions, using the highly complete Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) spectroscopic survey and deep imaging from the Kilo Degree Survey. We control systematic errors with dedicated image simulations and measure accurate shapes using the DEIMOS shape measurement method. We find a significant satellite radial alignment signal, which vanishes at large separations from the BGG. We do not identify any strong trends of the signal with galaxy absolute magnitude or group mass. The alignment signal is dominated by red satellites. We also find that the outer regions of galaxies are aligned more strongly than their inner regions, by varying the radial weight employed during the shape measurement process. This behaviour is evident for both red and blue satellites. BGGs are also found to be aligned with satellite positions, with this alignment being stronger when considering the innermost satellites, using red BGGs and the shape of the outer region of the BGG. Lastly, we measure the global intrinsic alignment signal in the GAMA sample for two different radial weight functions and find no significant difference.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Germline MBD4 deficiency causes a multi-tumor predisposition syndrome

We report an autosomal recessive, multi-organ tumor predisposition syndrome, caused by bi-allelic loss-of-function germline variants in the base excision repair (BER) gene MBD4. We identified five individuals with bi-allelic MBD4 variants within four families and these individuals had a personal and/or family history of adenomatous colorectal polyposis, acute myeloid leukemia, and uveal melanoma. MBD4 encodes a glycosylase involved in repair of G:T mismatches resulting from deamination of 5′-methylcytosine. The colorectal adenomas from MBD4-deficient individuals showed a mutator phenotype attributable to mutational signature SBS1, consistent with the function of MBD4. MBD4-deficient polyps harbored somatic mutations in similar driver genes to sporadic colorectal tumors, although AMER1 mutations were more common and KRAS mutations less frequent. Our findings expand the role of BER deficiencies in tumor predisposition. Inclusion of MBD4 in genetic testing for polyposis and multi-tumor phenotypes is warranted to improve disease management

Germline MBD4-deficiency causes a multi-tumor predisposition syndrome

We report an autosomal recessive, multi-organ tumor predisposition syndrome, caused by bi-allelic loss-of-function germline variants in the base excision repair (BER) gene MBD4. We identified five individuals with bi-allelic MBD4 variants within four families and these individuals had a personal and/or family history of adenomatous colorectal polyposis, acute myeloid leukemia, and uveal melanoma. MBD4 encodes a glycosylase involved in repair of G:T mismatches resulting from deamination of 5′-methylcytosine. The colorectal adenomas from MBD4-deficient individuals showed a mutator phenotype attributable to mutational signature SBS1, consistent with the function of MBD4. MBD4-deficient polyps harbored somatic mutations in similar driver genes to sporadic colorectal tumors, although AMER1 mutations were more common and KRAS mutations less frequent. Our findings expand the role of BER deficiencies in tumor predisposition. Inclusion of MBD4 in genetic testing for polyposis and multi-tumor phenotypes is warranted to improve disease management

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Measurement of associated W plus charm production in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

Peer reviewe